As the world continues to creep closer and closer to ultimate globalization, international finance continues to become a chief concern among those interested in preserving the economic independence present in the current world.
Currently, hedge funds are regarded by many Americans as the largest investment vehicle that has the power to overwhelm markets with large trades. Nevertheless, these hedge funds will soon look like child’s play when the world catches a grasp of the new financial holding vehicle, the Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). SWF’s are like hedge funds on steroids, rolling in at nearly twice the size in equity value.
These funds haven’t made much news in the US other than a couple of articles in the financial news and few hearings in the Senate Banking Committee last fall (who are now concerned with ensuring their re-elections, so they are focusing on the problems nagging at the US economy instead looking ahead). However, as of late 2008 the 28 countries with SWF’s total up at a balmy $2.1 trillion and some experts say the values could easily be within the $7-10 trillion range by 2012.
With current world equity estimated at some $150 trillion, SWF’s with $2-3 trillion can be a little scary considering that rising star, China, has some $200 billion in a SWF. (That China fund is the likely home of some of your stimulus check.) Last June, China’s SWF sank $3 billion into Wall Street Investment Bank, Blackstone Group, LP and the stock price quickly fell from $31 to $22. This is just one example of the potential effects of SWF’s.
The SWF’s are likely to be poorly managed due to government inefficiency, but even a poorly managed fund could generate returns of 8% which is almost unspeakable considering the alternative of low-yielding Treasury Bills.
Despite the fact that the funds have yet to makes waves in the United States, the International Monetary Fund recently rounded up the first rounds of round table discussion on the subject. And the IMF hopes to put in place some sort of “best practices” for SWF’s including making the funds more transparent. The transparency requests is something a few countries, notably a few in the Middle East, have balked at.
While some take the view of just more capital to invest in global markets, with the United States not having much of a playing field in this department it is difficult to assume that this situation provides for much other than a few countries with trillions of dollars managing the other economies of the worth.
In a sense, the United States could become what Warren Buffet calls a “sharecropper economy,” where Americans work for firms that are under foreign control. This means that hypothetically, communist China could operate capitalist America, sound like a problem waiting to explode?
Therefore, after we get through with this sub-prime mortgage crisis and regulation reform, it would be nice to see the Senate Banking Committee spend just a little more time hearing about SWF’s because the consensus on the funds is just too mixed.